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Eindhoven Stochastics Seminars (STO) From September 2011, the Eindhoven STOchastics seminar
series will replace the seminars of QPA - RSS - SIM - MRM Venue: Green Room at Eurandom
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2012 Florin Ciucu (T-Labs / TU Berlin) Randomness and Network Capacity This talk presents a recent methodology to compute
stochastic bounds on the distribution of per-flow capacity and delay in a
wireless network with a general random topology covering uniform, Poisson,
heavy-tailed, etc. distributions for nodes' densities and number of hops.
The capacity results are obtained in both asymptotic and non-asymptotic
regimes, in time scale and network size. The delay results are obtained for
the class of Markov arrival processes. Clement Dombry (Univ. Poitiers, France) Regular conditional distributions of max-stable processes We present in this talk recent results on the prediction problem in extreme value theory. Our main result is an explicit expression of the regular conditional distribution of a max-stable (or max-infinitely divisible) process $\{\eta(t)\}_{t\in T}$ given observations $\{\eta(t_i)=y_i,\ 1\leq i\leq k\}$. The starting point is the point process representation of max-infinitely divisible processes by Gin\'e, Hahn and Vatan (1990). We carefully analyze the structure of the underlying point process and introduce the notions of extremal function, sub-extremal functions and hitting scenario associated to the constraints. This allows us to explicit the conditional distribution as a mixture over all hitting scenarios compatible with the conditioning constraints. This extends a result by Wang and Stoev (2011) dealing with the case of spectrally discrete max-stable random fields. We believe this work offers new tools and perspective for prediction in extreme value theory together with numerous potential applications.
Remco van der Hofstad, (TU/e) Hypercube percolation Consider bond percolation on the hypercube {0,1}^n at the critical edge probability p_c defined such that the expected cluster size equals 2^{n/3}, where 2^{n/3} acts as the cube root of the number of vertices of the n-dimensional hypercube. Percolation on the hypercube was proposed by Erdos and Spencer (1979), and has proved to be substantially harder than percolation on the complete graph due to the non-trivial geometry of the hypercube. In this talk, I will describe the phase transition for percolation on the hypercube, and show that it shares many features with that on the complete graph. In previous work, we have identified the subcritical and critical regimes of percolation on the hypercube. In particular, we know that for p=p_c(1+O(2^{-n/3})), the largest connected component is of size roughly 2^{2n/3} and that this quantity is non-concentrated. So far, we were missing an analysis of the behavior of the largest connected component just above the critical value. In this work, we identify the supercritical behavior of percolation on the hypercube by showing that, for any sequence \varepsilon_n tending to zero, but \varepsilon_n being much larger than 2^{-n/3}, percolation on the hypercube with edge probability p=p_c(1+\varepsilon_n) has, with high probability, a unique giant component of size (2+o(1))\varepsilon_n 2^n. A main tool is the use of non-backtracking random walk, which we use to show that long percolation paths have endpoints that are almost uniform on the hypercube. This is joint work with Asaf Nachmias, building on previous work with Markus Heydenreich, Gordon Slade, Christian Borgs, Jennifer Chayes and Joel Spencer. Phil Whiting (Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs) Backlog-Based Random Access in Wireless Networks: Fluid Limits and Instability Issues Backlog-based wireless access schemes are simple and
inherently distributed, yet provide a striking capability to match the
optimal throughput performance of centralized scheduling mechanisms in a
wide range of scenarios. Unfortunately, the type of activation rules for
which throughput optimality has been established, may result in excessive
backlogs and delays. The use of more aggressive/persistent access schemes
than these can improve the delay performance, but does not offer any
universal maximum-stability guarantees. Mikhail Prokopenko (CSIRO ICT Centre, Sydney) Information Dynamics at the Edge of Chaos
Many evolutionary and self-organization pressures can be characterized
information-theoretically not only because it's an approximation useful
in designing biologically-inspired systems, but also because numerous
optimal structures evolve/self-organize in nature when information
transfer within certain channels is maximized. Specifically, distributed
computation can be described in terms of three fundamental operations:
information storage, transfer, and modification. The talk will focus on
information dynamics of computation within spatio-temporal systems,
quantifying these operations on a local scale in space and time. The
approach will be exemplified in different contexts, including cellular
automata, computational neuroscience, swarm dynamics, and random Boolean
networks (RBNs). In addition, we shall/may discuss a relation between
Fisher information and phase transitions / order parameters, drawing
from both thermodynamics and statistical estimation theory. Radmila Erkocevic-Pribic (Thales, Delft) Stochastics with Compressive Sensing in Radar I will start with showing the Compressive Sensing potential in sensor/radar by giving an overview of Compressive Sensing and Radar with(out) Compressive Sensing. After that, I will point out where in the processing chain Compressive Sensing brings crucial (fundamental) changes. These changes lead to several fundamental mathematical problems that need to be investigated and where industry-academia cooperation is required. I will conclude by emphasizing the stochastic nature of these changes. Alessandro Di Bucchianico (TU/e) Applications in simulation methods and statistics I will start by briefly reviewing the spectral representation of a reversible transition matrix and try to put this into a somewhat broader context. Next I will discuss a bound on the total variation distance of the chain to its stationary distribution. I will also discuss in detail a specific use of Markov chains in simulation known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. This technique is widely used in Bayesian statistics. I will show the Markov chain setting behind the two main forms (the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings sampler) and prove convergence in probability results of Section 12.6 that are important in statistics for deciding how long to simulate. If time permits, I will discuss a contraction bound on the relaxation time, which is the start of Chapter 13 . Gideon Weiss (University of Haifa) Sojourn Time Estimation in an M/G/Infinity Queue with Partial Information
Prof. Gideon Weiss will discuss the estimation of the sojourn time in an
M/G/1 system when one Istvan Kolossvary & Julia Komjathy First passage percolation on Inhomogeneous Random Graphs
This talk discusses first passage percolation (FPP) on inhomogeneous
random graphs (IHRG). The random graph model G(n;\kappa) we first study
is the so-called finite type case of the general model introduced by
Bollobas, Janson and Riordan. Each edge of G(n;\kappa) is given by an
independent exponential edge weight with rate 1. Our main assumption is
that the average number of neighbors \lambda_n +1 of each vertex is
independent of its type. We consider the cases where the limit as n goes
to infinity gives a finite or infinite \lambda. Afterwards the general
model is also considered. Peter van Elsacker (TU Eindhoven) Small Sample Size Quantile Estimation for the Negative Binomial Distribution In this talk I will present the
results of my bachelor's thesis research project. Estate Khmaladze (University of Wellington) Contiguity theory for statistical problems with set as a parameter of interest
To give a flavor of practical questions we have in mind in this talk
consider this: is the pollution site the given hypothetical set K or is
it rather one of its small perturbations K_\epsilon? Or the same
question with an ore deposit site: is it a given K of one of K_\epsilon?
Given n observation how small perturbations can we detect? The proper
answer requires development of quite a bit of a theory. Mark Peletier (TU Eindhoven) Understanding the origins of the Wasserstein gradient flows
Many evolutionary systems described by parabolic partial differential
equations can be written as a gradient flow of some energy with respect
to some metric. When present, this gradient-flow structure provides both
high-level insight into the behaviour of the system, and low-level,
practical tools for the analysis of the system and its solutions. Since
the pioneering work of Jordan, Kinderlehrer, and Otto (1998) an
impressive collection of evolutionary PDEs has been formulated as a
gradient flow of some energy with respect to the Wasserstein metric. Peter Grünwald (CWI - University Leiden) Safe Learning: How to modify Bayesian inference when the model is wrong Standard Bayesian inference can behave suboptimally if the model under consideration is wrong: in some simple settings, the posterior may fail to concentrate even in the limit of infinite sample size. We introduce a test that can tell from the data whether we are in such a situation. If we are, we can adjust the learning rate (equivalently: make the prior lighter-tailed) in a data-dependent way. The resulting “safe” estimator continues to achieve good rates with wrong models. When applied to classification problems, the safe estimator achieves the optimal rates for the Tsybakov exponent of the underlying distribution, thereby establishing a connection between Bayesian inference and statistical learning theory. Arnoud den Boer (CWI) Dynamic Pricing and Learning
'Revenue management and dynamic pricing' (RM&DP) is
an umbrella term for practices where the selling price of a product or
service is not a fixed quantity, but can easily be adjusted over time
and adapted to changing circumstances. Classical examples are found in
the airline and hotel industry, where prices are controlled by opening
or closing 'fare classes', but nowadays many more applications can be
found, e.g. in restaurants, concert halls, theaters, and amusement
parks. Florian Simatos (CWI-Eurandom) Fluid and heavy traffic regime of a stochastic network with mobility After briefly introducing myself and my research interests, I will focus in this talk on a model of stochastic network with mobile users. I will present scaling results in the fluid and heavy traffic regimes, which provide an important step towards analyzing the performance of bandwidth allocation policy of wireless networks. The study of the heavy traffic regime provides an example of a general result that allows to reduce the convergence of regenerative processes to the convergence of their excursions. Hao Peng (TU/e, Department of Industrial Engineering) CANCELLED Component Reliability Criticality or Importance Measures for Systems with Degrading Components This paper proposes two new importance measures: one new importance measure for systems with s-independent degrading components, and another one for systems with s-correlated degrading components. Importance measures in previous research are inadequate for systems with degrading components because they are only applicable to steady-state cases and problems with discrete states without considering the continuously changing status of the degrading components. Our new importance measures are proposed as functions of time that can provide timely feedback on the critical components prior to failure based on the measured or observed degradation. Furthermore, the correlation between components is considered for developing these importance measures through a multivariate distribution. To evaluate the criticality of components, we analyzed reliability models for multi-component systems with degrading components, which can also be utilized for studying maintenance models. Numerical examples show that the proposed importance measures can be used as an effective tool to assess component criticality for systems with degrading components. Jean-Bernard Martens (TU/e, Department of Industrial Design) Statistics from an HCI Perspective – Introducing Illmo (Interactive Log Likelihood Modeling) While statistics is recognized as an important topic (or necessary evil) in the area of human-computer interaction (HCI) and other scientific fields, it is also a topic that spurns continuous debate. The current practice is that, despite extensive developments in the area of statistics in the last decades, most practitioners stick to the most simple parametric methods. Increasingly, we see the argument arise that scientists will have to resort to more advanced methods, which are unfortunately only available in advanced statistical packages that require a specific (often, command-line) syntax and a substantial understanding of the underlying statistical principles. This talk introduces and discusses a new program, called Illmo, for performing statistics. In order to operate the program successfully, the user only needs to understand a single statistical principle, i.e., the likelihood as a goodness-of-fit measure between the actual data and the proposed statistical model. Illmo is unique in the sense that it not only provides extensive graphical renderings of the data analysis results, but provides an advanced visual interface for navigating between different data analysis methods. A one-week course on statistics with non-mathematically trained students (i.e., design students) confirmed that the program is relatively easy to operate and understand, which allowed students to come up with original ideas for how to apply the program within their own design practice. Marko Boon (TU/e) Waiting times in queueing networks with a single shared server We study a queueing network with a single shared server that
serves the queues in a cyclic order. External customers arrive at the queues
according to independent Poisson processes. After completing service, a
customer either leaves the system or is routed to another queue. This model
is very generic and finds many applications in computer systems,
communication networks, manufacturing systems, and robotics. Special cases
of the introduced network include well-known polling models, tandem queues,
systems with a waiting room, multi-stage models with parallel servers, and
many others. Oliver Amft (TU/e, Department of Electrical Engineering) Activity pattern modelling and recognition in ubiquitous systems Behaviour analysis using ubiquitous systems could facilitate
many areas, from assisting in daily life situations of independently living
chronic patients to saving energy in public buildings. Detecting nuances in
daily behaviour routines from sensor data, such as in social interaction or
dietary activities, may allow physicians to understand trends in cognitive
impairments, e.g., related to the effect of a therapy, and status of a
patient. Likewise, occupancy and activity of users in public buildings
affects actual energy needs far beyond the dynamics that are currently
considered in building operations. However, on-body and ambient data from
ubiquitous sensors is noisy and activity patterns vary or drift over time.
Jef Teugels (KU Leuven, Eurandom) Insurance and Reinsurance INSURANCE MATHEMATICS PRESENTATION 1 ; PRESENTATION 2 Debjit Roy (RSM) Stochastic Modeling of Automated Storage Systems using Semi-open Queuing Networks Semi-open queuing network (SOQN) realistically models the synchronization process between external customer arrivals and fixed system resources. Hence, SOQNs provide better estimates of customer waiting times and resource utilization. In this research, stochastic models are developed for multi-tier automated storage systems where vehicles (resources) are self-powered to travel in horizontal directions (x- and y- axes), but use conveyors for vertical motion (z-axis). The SOQN for a single tier forms the building block for the multi-tier queuing network model. The conveyor system is modeled as a GI/G/1 queue. By using a combination of parametric decomposition and embedded Markov chain analysis, the queuing network is solved, and the effect of conveyors on system throughput capacity and transaction cycle times is determined. Nikhil Bansal (TU/e) Finding needles in exponential haystacks using Brownian Motion Let S_1,...,S_n be arbitrary sets on the elements 1,...n.
The celebrated "six standard deviations suffice" result of Spencer says that
there always exists a red-blue coloring of the elements that colors each set
almost evenly (i.e. up to 6 n(1/2) ). Ton Dieker (Georgia Tech) Global stability of stochastic processing networks through local quadratic Lyapunov functions The size of many of today's stochastic networks prohibits
optimal scheduling due to high computational demands, even when optimality
merely requires that the network be stable. This motivates the search for
simple scheduling algorithms for which throughput guarantees can be given.
We present such a scheduling algorithm. Tim Hulshof (TU/e) Geometric properties of critical percolation clusters Percolation is a paradigm model of statistical mechanics because it is one of the simplest models to undergo a phase transition. What happens at the phase transition is not well understood. I will talk about some new results for the geometry of critical percolation clusters in high-dimensions. In particular, I will highlight a few remarkable links between critical percolation and random walk. Yifan Xu (Binghamton University) First crossing time of compound Poisson processes(CPP) with linear boundaries The question on the first passage time arises in topics such as, Wald's sequential probability ratio test, the time to ruin in classic risk model, the length of a busy period in M/G/1 queues, and certain inventory management problems. The exact distribution of the stopping time is found through the defective pdf of the level of CPP at any fixed time t, restricted on the set {processes that have not crossed any boundaries at t}. The said defective pdf itself is interesting since it describes the state of CPP within certain linear boundaries. A method of numerical approximation of the result is also discussed. Britt Mathijssen (TU/e) Distributed Control of Light Networks Wireless networks are integrated into many of today's technologies. A new wireless communication system, is Visible Light Communication, which uses visible light to transmit data. In this talk, we investigate the performance of an application, currently researched by Philips, of this communication system in grid mesh networks. An introduction to wireless networking protocols and mesh networks is given, explaining the main concepts of the field. We consider two of these protocols, ALOHA and CSMA/CA, more extensively. Using these protocols, we analyze and optimize linear mesh networks. The main subject of the talk is the application of a protocol similar to CSMA/CA to mesh networks positioned on a grid. Our focus lies on finding the optimal value of the sensing range used by the protocol, minimizing hitting time and nodes that are not reached. Using a specially built simulation application, we derive some qualitative results on these grid networks. Kiamars Vafayi (University of Leiden) Brownian Momentum Process and Symmetric Inclusion Process, duality properties and weak coupling limits I will talk about
Brownian Momentum Process (BMP), a model of heat conduction with stochastic
diffusion of energy. This model is related to and is dual (in the
probabilistic sense) to an interacting particle system, the Symmetric
Inclusion Process (SIP) that we have introduced, which is a Bosonic
counterpart to the Fermionic symmetric exclusion process. SIP helps
obtaining probabilistic properties of BMP and for example it describes the
evolution of all the correlation functions.
Last updated
14-05-12
P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands |
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