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Eindhoven SPOR seminar

Nov 22, 2022, 15:45 - 16:45

Peter Grunwald (CWI/LEI) - E is the New P

Tuesday, the 22nd  of November, 15:45 – 16:45, MetaForum MF14

 

ABSTRACT:

How much evidence do the data give us about one hypothesis versus another? The standard way to measure evidence is still the p-value, despite a myriad of problems surrounding it.  We present the e-value, a  recently popularized notion of evidence which overcomes some of these issues. While e-values have lain dormant until 2019, interest in them has recently exploded with papers in the Annals of Statistics, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society and the like - in  June 2022 we held a first workshop on e-values at EURANDOM in Eindhoven with attendees from probability theory, theoretical statistics, clinical trial design and meta-analysis but also from some of  the large tech companies interested in A/B testing.

E-values are also the basic building blocks of anytime-valid confidence intervals  that remain valid under optional stopping. In simple cases, e-values coincide with a classical Bayesian notion of evidence. But if the null is  composite or nonparametric, or an alternative cannot be explicitly formulated, e-values and Bayes factors become distinct and e-processes can be seen as a generalization of nonnegative supermartingales. Unlike the Bayes factor, E-values allow for tests with strict ' classical' Type-I error control under optional continuation and combination of data from different sources. They are also easier to interpret than p-values, having a straightforward interpretation in terms of betting.

Details

Date:
Nov 22, 2022
Time:
15:45 - 16:45

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